Mock Convention’s Platform Committee’s role is to write a platform that most closely resembles the policies of the Republican Party and the party’s presidential nominee.  Additionally, the platform is a unique opportunity for the party to debut its goals, objectives, and reforms; it is a vision for the party’s future.  As the date to declare candidacy for the 2024 election draws closer, possible GOP candidates are siding differently on a variety of issues, from foreign policy to entitlement reform.  Here are some policies we are watching:

Entitlement Reform

President Joe Biden recently launched his 2023 budget proposal which includes billions in funding towards entitlement reform (i.e., Social Security and Medicare funding), which has sparked a heated debate amongst Republican leaders over how to address this issue.  The bulk of the conversation revolves around how to protect the benefits of these programs while also acting fiscally responsible in lieu of the high national debt.  The debate has revealed a divide in responses among GOP 2024 hopefuls. Some propose making cuts to these programs because of the high national debt, while others suggest straying away from any reform whatsoever.  The entitlement conversation has also proven an opportunity for the Democrats to nail Republicans for long refusing to protect welfare benefits.

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has vowed not to touch Medicare and Social Security, even as debates about the debt limit arise. Former President Donald Trump has also agreed to leave these programs alone, vowing to act as an agent for those who rely on their benefits.  He also takes this stance in direct contrast to Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis’, who is also gaining momentum in 2024 polls.  On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump called out DeSantis in all caps, “he is a wheelchair over-the-cliff kind of guy, just like his hero, failed politician Paul Ryan.”  This commentary comes after DeSantis voted for budget proposals in Congress in 2013, 2014, and 2015 that would raise the retirement age for Social Security and create a commission to research potential reforms.  DeSantis has also told reporters in the past that he would support the privatization of Social Security and Medicare along with various other reforms such as consumer choice. 

This is interesting to note considering Trump has changed his views on entitlement reform in the past few years, indicating there is not a clear-cut conservative response.  The stance he took about a month ago made it clear he believes that under no circumstance should Republicans vote to cut funding for Medicare and Medicaid.  This was a similar stance he took in 2015 before winning the presidency in 2016.  But recently when he was asked about entitlements, Trump said “we will take a look at that,” suggesting he might believe differently now.

In his recent visit to Washington and Lee’s campus for Mock Convention’s Spring Kickoff event, former Vice President Mike Pence also took the controversial subject of entitlement reform.  For Pence, it is not worth spending more money on entitlement programs because the national debt is so high.  Though having already declared her candidacy, Nikki Haley believes entitlement reforms are vital, but it’s ultimately more important to protect the benefits people already enjoy and declines to take them away.

Regardless of the stance on entitlements, they make up one of the largest categories of spending in the federal budget.  With the national debt reaching $31.4 trillion this year, the conversation is guaranteed to continue and will warrant a response from both parties.  By 2035, beneficiaries of both programs are slated to see a decline in payments if this problem goes unaddressed.  Some Republicans have even suggested reforming Medicaid might be more plausible in today’s political climate, by adding work requirements, capping spending, and repealing the Obamacare revision that expanded eligibility.  This is certainly a policy area worth tracking come 2024 and it will be crucial to a candidate's success in the primaries and debates as 2024 approaches.

American Involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War  

Another popular topic of debate in politics is funding for the Russia-Ukraine war.  Most noteworthy of all potential 2024 presidents' responses is that of Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis.  DeSantis has faced backlash from several prominent Republican Party members over his recent comments regarding U.S. aid to Ukraine. In response to a questionnaire presented by Fox News's Tucker Carlson, DeSantis answered the prompt “Is opposing Russia in Ukraine a vital American national strategic interest?” with the following:

“While the U.S. has many vital national interests – securing our borders, addressing the crisis of readiness within our military, achieving energy security and independence, and checking the economic, cultural, and military power of the Chinese Communist Party – becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them.”

DeSantis went on to discuss his stance against supplying Ukraine with improved fighter aircraft and heavier artillery, citing fear of being drawn into a large-scale conflict with a fellow nuclear power. He would also elaborate on the importance of curbing the growing influence of China and criticized President Biden for bringing the two regimes closer together at the expense of the United States.

The boldest component of DeSantis’s critiques of U.S. aid for Ukraine is his characterization of the war as a “territorial dispute” and not a war of Russian aggression. By doing so, the Florida Governor risks justifying Putin’s claims over the Donbas region. This raises the question of how DeSantis would handle Russian expansionism should he run and win the 2024 presidential election.  DeSantis’s statement echoes similar comments made by former President Donald Trump. Several other prominent Republicans have issued statements that reflect those of the Florida Governor and the former president. However, DeSantis has met harsh criticism from several leading Republican lawmakers. Fellow Floridian Rep. Marco Rubio, along with Texas Sen. John Cornyn and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, spoke out against DeSantis’s comments. Former Vice President Mike Pence, in response to the same Tucker Carlson questionnaire, affirmed his commitment to supplying Ukraine and following Reagan doctrine - a sentiment he affirmed at Mock Con’s 2023 Spring Kickoff.  Another recent GOP hopeful Nikki Haley, takes a similar stance to Pence on Ukraine, saying it is an American responsibility to fight back against Russia by assisting the Ukrainian war effort.

Since receiving backlash for his comments, DeSantis has stated that he does believe Putin to be a “war criminal” who “should be held accountable” and is “hostile to the United States.”  The issue brings into question the American people’s outlook on the war. Many Americans on both sides of the aisle are beginning to lose faith in the war effort - 23%, according to the Pew Research Center. Further, 40% of Republicans believe the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine. Republican voters’ view of American involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian War will play a major role in the primaries as the Party looks to put forth a candidate that can retake the White House.

Education Reform

From the beginning of his tenure as Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis has shaken up the public education system and gained significant attention for his educational policies. While the decision to block the teaching of Critical Race Theory has brought his changes to national attention, DeSantis began his reforms in 2019 with the expansion of school choice to a taxpayer-funded voucher system. School choice is not a novel GOP policy and DeSantis is not alone in his pursuit of expanding it, as Virginia Governor Greg Youngkin also recently supported a bill to give parents financial resources to spend on private school education or homeschooling, but DeSantis is arguably becoming the most prominent figurehead of conservative education policy.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting school closures put a spotlight on schools and promoted greater parental interest in what their children were being taught, as well as what policies were enforced. DeSantis based his decision to reopen schools for the 2020-21 school year on giving parents a greater choice despite major pushback from teacher’s unions and the medical community and his subsequent executive order in the summer of 2021 eliminating mask mandates for students faced similar controversy.

This theme of emphasizing parental control and input in education continued to DeSantis’ passing legislation in the spring of 2022 which would limit instruction on race and sexuality in public schools and private workplaces. The two laws, the Parental Rights in Education Act, which opponents have called the “Don’t Say Gay” law, and the Stop the Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees Act, demonstrate DeSantis’ commitment to limiting what he calls indoctrination and protecting children against explicit or inappropriate material. Defenders of the Stop WOKE Act say that it does not stop the teaching of historical fact, but from making students feel guilt at the actions of earlier generations while critics have said that the law inhibits First Amendment rights and leaves teachers confused. Many educators have now said that they have trepidations about teaching the subjects of racial history or slavery in fear of recourse from parents. Approaching the subject from the wrong angle, they argue, could cost them their jobs. On the other side, some parents, and advocates, including the conservative nonprofit Moms for Liberty, are rejoicing at these restrictions because they believe they will increase teacher accountability.

Despite backlash from the White House, prominent companies like Walt Disney Co., and various politicians and celebrities, DeSantis’ administration announced this month a new proposal to expand the Parental Rights in Education Act to prohibit teaching about sexual orientation and gender identity not just in kindergarten through third grade, but completely in K-12 education. This move suggests that DeSantis believes this policy trajectory has enough support to carry him forward in his expected presidential run in 2024, which a recent poll by Hart Research conducted in battleground states demonstrates may be true. Polled voters showed a greater desire to vote for a candidate who believes in many of DeSantis’ policies, such as deemphasizing race in education and stopping young children from being taught about sexuality and gender identity.

This is not to say that DeSantis may not have, and hasn’t already, had trouble in pursuing his educational policies. The backlash from teachers and students has come in the form of protests and legal challenges to these laws. Last August a federal judge issued an injunction to prohibit the enforcement of the Stop WOKE Act in private workplaces because it violated the right to free speech, and this month the same judge upheld an injunction on enforcement in colleges and universities. If these legal battles continue to pose a hindrance to the application of DeSantis’ reforms, it may signal their limited potential at a national level and hurt DeSantis if he chooses to run on this platform.

Industrial Policy and the American Economy

Another major shift in policy that has occurred in Washington is industrial policy.  From the onset of the Trump presidency, neoliberal policies have steadily lost favor. As president, Donald Trump attacked free trade, and President Biden has continued the assault by implementing full-scale industrial policy for the first time in decades.  President Biden’s industrial policy reflects “a belief that a more interventionist state can shape economic outcomes.” That flouts the neoliberal proscription against state intervention which meshes well with the conservative emphasis on small government and fiscal responsibility.

Despite that tension, select Republicans in both the House and Senate joined Democrats to fund two of President Biden’s signature measures during the summer of 2022: the Infrastructure Act and the CHIPS Act. The Infrastructure Act committed $1.2 trillion to roads, rails, bridges, and other projects, while the CHIPS Act allocated $280bn to subsidize domestic semiconductor factories and scientific research.  Over a third of Republican senators voted for both measures. Support was far lower in the House. Of the 212 House Republicans, thirteen voted for the Infrastructure Act and twenty-four for the final version of the CHIPS Act.

The limited GOP support in part reflects the parties’ shared goals. Both are concerned about China’s growing power and want to ensure that the U.S. can outpace China in key industries and technologies. Both also lament a perceived decline in American manufacturing as old factory towns dry up. Indeed, the need to counter China and rejuvenate the Rust Belt features prominently in the rhetoric of Presidents Trump and Biden, and the topics will continue surfacing in the next election cycle. At one recent event, for example, President Biden touted his industrial policy, asking, “Where is it written that America can’t lead the world once again in manufacturing?”  With bipartisan jostling over the issues, articulating a clear position is necessary if the GOP hopes to succeed in 2024.

However, as the vote tallies show, Republicans are divided on how exactly to push the American economy forward.  Indeed, although some members of the party have become fiscally loose, the fiscal hawks still hold significant clout. This was most recently seen in McCarthy’s run for Speaker of the House, he was elected by his caucus only after agreeing to restrict spending.  Any push by Republican officials and candidates for further subsidy-based industrial policy thus looks ill-fated.

But potential intra-party opposition did not stop Donald Trump from promising to spend money on infrastructure in his 2016 campaign. He touted a proposal that would create $1trn in investment during his campaign which was repeatedly revived during his presidency, to no effect.  Indeed, doubling down on infrastructure investment and incentives for factories will be key if the GOP wants to retain the white, working-class voters Trump picked up from Democrats in 2016.

Unsurprisingly, eight of the twenty-four House Republicans who voted for the CHIPS Act represent Ohio, a rust-belt state that has drifted increasingly red since 2016. Republicans thus need an industrial policy if they want to compete with the Democrats.  That policy could still be friendly to the priorities of fiscal conservatives. Although Democrats and some Republicans lean into subsidies and another direct spending, Speaker McCarthy’s “Commitment to America” suggests that regulatory relief and tax incentives–as opposed to spending–could encourage companies to invest in domestic industry.  In the next cycle, then, expect rust-belt Republicans to tout their involvement in Biden’s industrial policy. Also expect GOP presidential candidates to, in some form, make industrial policy proposals that appeal to counter the Democrat’s advances on the voters who have become critical to GOP success in recent years.

The Debt Ceiling

With their performance in the 2022 Midterms, Republicans successfully wrestled back control of the House of Representatives, returning the country to divided government ahead of the 2024 Presidential contest. As a result, the federal budget and debt ceiling have become a political bargaining chip, with the potential to bring the government grinding to a halt should the President and Congress fail to come to terms. Disagreements over budgetary cuts exist both outside and inside the GOP, as intra-party strife over entitlement spending threaten to torpedo Republicans’ unified front.

Shortly after the 118th Congress was gaveled in, the new Republican House majority continued with their pre-election demands that any increases in the debt ceiling be counteracted by reductions in spending. Spending cuts to government programs—especially entitlements like Social Security and Medicare—were rebuffed by President Biden as well as some within the GOP. Underscoring the urgency of this issue, in between the beginning of the new legislative session and the first meeting between Speaker McCarthy and the President, the government formally met its previously-set debt ceiling limit; this forced Treasury Secretary Yellen to take “extraordinary measures” to prevent a default through the spring.

This debt ceiling showdown stems in part from the plan then-Minority Leader McCarthy rolled out on the campaign trail last fall. Entitled the “Commitment to America,” the promise seeks to strengthen the nation’s economy through “curbing wasteful government spending.” The tools available to now-Speaker McCarthy—namely the power of the purse allocated to the House—enable him to attempt to follow through with this promise.

McCarthy’s current proposal, which would cap annual spending increases at 1%, has been derided by President Biden as necessitating “huge cuts to important programs,” thereby making such an agreement unlikely right now. Of note, however, is the political turmoil that has erupted amongst Republicans on what exactly should be cut. Last fall, Senator Rick Scott released the “12 Point Policy Plan to Rescue America,” which included proposals to bring Medicare and Social Security back onto the negotiating table; there would be a five-year sunset period with no requirement to renew them. Many Republicans, most notably former President Donald Trump, have made explicit statements against such a possibility. Trump stated in January that “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security.” Through such posturing, Trump also sets the stage for a contrast between himself and potential challenger Ron DeSantis, as touched on earlier.

Current political situations and events in Washington have had the effect of also forming battlelines for 2024, effectively creating a proxy war before the nomination process gets underway in earnest. While issues like the debt ceiling are ostensibly outside of DeSantis’ jurisdiction—he has been in the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee since 2019—his prior voting record does provide fodder for contrast. While in Congress, DeSantis did indeed vote to raise the retirement age as well as to alter the formula for benefit allocation, though these measures did not pass. While not entirely analogous, the similar notions of wide-ranging fiscal restraint have led to some comparisons. Recently, however, DeSantis has come out and indicated that he did not support any possible efforts to “mess with Social Security.” All in all, the specter of the 2024 Election continues to loom behind most every major political event in Washington even as the primaries themselves remain nearly a year out. Tensions remain as the effects of divided government begin to be felt, and the nation’s budget appears unlikely to come out of the process entirely unscathed. Against the backdrop of inter-party squabbles factional strife within the GOP itself has manifested both within the House Republican Caucus and the national stage.

SOURCES:

https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/03-14-2023/rubio-hits-desantis/

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1635445988381925379

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ron-desantis-ukraine-donald-trump-republicans-america-ronald-reagan-1cebb8d1

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/31/as-russian-invasion-nears-one-year-mark-partisans-grow-further-apart-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/10/27/joe-biden-attempts-the-biggest-overhaul-of-americas-economy-in-decades 

 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-promises-make-infrastructure-major-focus

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/house-rules-package-vote/index.html

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H4ThZcq1oJQ

https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-ukraine-republicans-2024-f44acc03f772f393b7f8d452ee26508a

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/02/trump-calls-desantis-wheelchair-over-the-cliff-kind-of-guy.html

https://news.gallup.com/poll/196064/trump-seen-less-conservative-prior-gop-candidates.aspx

 https://time.com/6254832/republicans-sunset-social-security-medicare/

https://apnews.com/article/speaker-kevin-mccarty-debt-ceiling-biden-1dd542c6c7acfc2287e68e6facae2be4

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/debt-ceiling-deadline-treasury/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/30/politics/debt-limit-negotiations-republicans/index.html