Rooted within the Political Department, a primary goal of Mock Convention is to aid in the education and political knowledge of students on campus. By publicizing political research and hosting world-class speakers, Mock Con introduces students to the political sphere and acquaints them with leading political issues.
Mock Con aims to be the most informed non-campaign group each cycle, taking in all available data possible. In addition to looking at polls and other public-facing information, the Political Department relies on communication with individual campaigns, the RNC, and operatives and journalists acting on the ground in each state.
Read below to see the breakdown behind Mock Con’s trident approach and meet the team behind the prediction.
National
Big Picture
FOSTER HARRIS
“As the Political Chair, my job is to have a hand in every pot and understand the big picture of the 2024 race. By analyzing delegate allocation rules, digging through polling crosstabs, talking off the record with senior advisors on the major campaigns, and reviewing State and Regional Chair analysis, I work to bring all of the components together to get the prediction right.”
Party Approach
HENRY HADEN
“As the Republican Party Analyst, I pay attention to new developments with key party leaders and how these shifts align with the feelings of voters across the country. It is my job to be an expert on the Republican Party- it’s rules, procedures, historical trends, and current sentiments.”
National Outlook
JAKE WINSTON
“Looking at national polling, candidate demographic support, and press attention help me to evaluate how well candidates are doing in capturing the national spotlight. Helping to lead our data-based approach as National Political Analyst, it is my role to translate a candidate’s national image into a state-level understanding.”
Regional
PIERSON GAMMAGE | SOUTHEAST
“In the Southeast region, it is important to look at purple states, like Virginia and Georgia, to see how different voters are responding to particular candidates. Comparing and contrasting these different state polls allows us to paint a larger regional picture. By looking at key voter issues and polling from both 2016 and currently in 2023, we can more holistically understand the southeastern primary Republican voter base.”
FORD WEBB | MIDWEST
“When conducting regional polling analysis, we examine county-level polling data from 2016, along with national trends on key issues for voters in our respective regions. In the Midwest, Trump’s influence remains significant, and topics such as abortion and trade issues are likely to play an outsized role, given the demographics of the area—from northeastern Ohio’s industrial centers to dairy farmers in Wisconsin.”
Local
Monthly state report
“Around every four to eight weeks, I send a report to South Regional Chair Robert Mish, primarily updating him on the political outreach I’ve done for Texas. I also distill some of the polling data I’ve gathered and track any candidate visits to the state or notable endorsements. The monthly state reports have been an effective way for me to communicate clearly with my regional chair and stay in the know about the political landscape in Texas.” - Jordan Aikman ‘24 | Texas State Chair
Delegates’ Parade float design
“The float design and building process is both fun and collaborative. It encourages the delegation to be creative and allows us to learn about our state and showcase what it is famous for.” - Alex Grimley ‘24 | U.S. Virgin Islands State Chair
Fostering student engagement
“As a state chair, I work with my delegation to analyze and promote Virginia politics. This includes everything from drafting reports on the political happenings of the commonwealth to making a float for the parade convention weekend. State chairs foster student engagement by being the front lines of Mock Con on campus. The best example of this is Delegates Day, where I had the opportunity to talk to students about Virginia politics and sign people up for the delegation.” - Brendan Smith ‘24 | Virginia State Chair
Keeping up with current events
“As part of my role as the Oregon State Chair, I work to keep up with the state’s current political trends. I connect with local Republican figures and organizations, analyze polling data, keep an eye out for candidate rallies in the state, and read updates on endorsements from congressional and state legislature representatives.” - Melos Ambaye ‘25 | Oregon State Chair
Mock Convention is routinely lauded as a leading predictive force and the nation’s oldest and most accurate mock convention. There’s a reason that we haven’t inaccurately predicted a Republican primary in over 74 years, and we want to share that expertise with you through transparent, informed, and non-partisan analysis directly from the Political Department.
- FOSTER HARRIS, POLITICAL CHAIR