A Note from our Political Chair, Foster Harris

After four years of conducting in-depth data analysis, having high-level off the record conversations, and applying the delegate allocation, delegate selection, and election rules for every state, territory, and the District of Columbia, Mock Convention 2024 is proud to predict former President Donald J. Trump as the Republican Party’s nominee for President of the United States of America.

President Trump’s strength in pivotal Super Tuesday states, massive ground game and organizational operation, and lead among almost all demographic indicators, coupled with his near-incumbent status, deep Party support, cash on hand, and rules advantage, give him an insurmountable advantage in the delegate race. Winning 2,353 out of 2,429 total delegates, the Political Department predicts that President Trump will win the nomination on the first ballot.

Through interviews with campaign allies, RNC members, state and county GOP chairs, and other decision makers, we expect President Trump’s running mate to be Congresswoman Elise Stefanik. Congresswoman Stefanik adds youth, vast legislative experience, and fundraising prowess to the ticket.

President Trump is a near-incumbent, and the delegate and election rules reflect this reality, much more closely mirroring the 2020 Republican presidential primary rules in most states than the competitive 2016 race. Nevada’s strict rules on caucus spending, Colorado’s removal of their controversial 2016 delegate selection plan, California’s 50 percent winner take all trigger, and Michigan’s bifurcated process all give Trump institutional strengths not held by Haley.

Moreover, as the race begins its slow march towards a crowded Super Tuesday and away from individual state contests, Ambassador Haley’s relatively weaker ground game, relying on her Americans for Prosperity support, will give the more popular President Trump a major advantage.

Finally, our best in the nation data-driven model of combining state and national poll crosstab analysis and aggregates and modeled and actual GOP likely voter demographic breakdowns for each state and relevant congressional district paint a compelling picture. When mapped on to the primary calendar, projected outreach-driven scenarios, and delegate rules, it is clear that President Trump will be the nominee.

In many ways, this race was like no other. When we started this process, the lessons learned from 2020 told us to expect the unexpected. While that may have been intended to have been advice focused in the political realm, the legal aspects of this race are unique, challenging, and test the very Constitution our country was founded upon. On February 8th, the day before Mock Convention 2024 kicked off, the U.S. Supreme Court began to hear oral arguments on a Colorado Supreme Court decision to disqualify President Trump from the state’s primary ballot. A decision to disqualify the former president, which would set a national standard to disqualify him from all state-run primary and general election ballots, would have vast consequences in the 2024 race. Along with punting to the general election or deeming President Trump eligible, the Court could also rule in a manner allowing the states to determine primary election eligibility in the primary process. An interview with one of the leading conservative scholars calling for disqualification, The Honorable J. Michael Luttig (‘76), can be found here.

Yet, through our vast outreach operation including state GOP executive committees and many of the RNC’s 168 members, we found a widespread effort for potentially impacted states to switch to a party-run caucus/convention process that would keep President Trump on the primary ballot. Simply put, in the vast majority of states, the Republican Party will do everything they possibly can to keep the former president on the ballot. Perhaps not in the general election, but in the Republican presidential primary, such a decision cannot on its own stop Trump’s march to the nomination. The delegate race is Party business, and we do not foresee the Party, in their eyes, subverting the will of their voters.

Mock Convention is more than a nonpartisan prediction of the out of power party’s presidential nominee. It is an active civics-driven lesson in the inner workings of the primary process and the deep and multifaceted policy discussion taking place in the party lacking the bully pulpit of the White House. Our speakers showcased the many future routes that the Republican Party might take in 2028 and beyond while being honest about what the modern day GOP is, and our platform expertly captures the policy aims of the Republican Party in 2024. With over 95 percent of the student body taking part and the Political Steering Committee featuring the presidents of both College Democrats and College Republicans among its ranks, the student body has continued its tradition of getting into the process no matter which party is featured.

Through our speaker lineup, transformative fundraising effort, operational excellence, historical press attendance and coverage, and holistic predictive approach, this Mock Convention has met and then exceeded the cycles before it and has set a high bar for the cycles to come.

Over to you, Mock Convention 2028!