Though the Republican Party’s anticipated red wave in the 2022 midterms did not fully materialize, Republicans saw considerable success in the states of Florida and New York.  Candidate quality aside, voters in these states came out to the polls to elect candidates they felt delivered on two key issues – inflation and crime.  A Republican victory in these states might illustrate that voters are looking for a president in 2024 who can deliver sound policy solutions to solve economic and crime-related issues.

Ron DeSantis, Florida’s re-elected governor, won by a considerable margin on Tuesday night.  DeSantis captured Florida with an almost 20-point lead over Democratic candidate Charlie Crist.  He outperformed himself this election cycle, compared to the 2020 gubernatorial race that was so close it called for a recount.  A noteworthy victory for DeSantis was in Miami-Dade, a county with the largest population in Florida, and one that is historically blue.  A Republican gubernatorial candidate had not won the county since 2002 when Jeb Bush was the governor.  Polls prior to the midterms hinted that Miami-Dade would be a possible bellwether county.

DeSantis won Miami-Dade County by an astonishing 11-point margin.  He also picked up Osceola and Palm Beach, two counties that traditionally vote blue.  Polls leading up to the midterms showed that voters in Florida felt the most pressing issue was the economy, specifically the hardships caused by record-high inflation rates.  Voters evidently felt DeSantis had a stronger platform for economic growth than his democratic counterpart Crist.

Miami-Dade is mostly made up of Latino voters, which can be broken down into Cuban Americans, Puerto Ricans, and other Hispanics.  Statistically, they generally fall into the middle and working classes, where inflation is detrimental to everyday life.  To reach these voters in the months leading up to the election, DeSantis vowed to reduce gas, housing, and grocery prices.  Additionally, DeSantis emphasized Florida’s low unemployment rates in his campaign, showing his commitment to job creation.  Florida is already an attractive state for those struggling to find work or those working low-paying jobs because it does not have a state income tax.

In his first term, DeSantis demonstrated his commitment to stimulate Florida’s economy and increase employment opportunities for his constituents.  During the pandemic, he let businesses and schools reopen earlier than most states, which created a sense of normalcy for all Floridians despite lockdown instructions from public health experts.  This is not the first time DeSantis has catered his policies directly to the people of Florida.  When the destructive Hurricane Ian pummeled South Florida in late September, DeSantis halted campaign ads and any commentary relating to the border crisis to focus his attention on directing aid to impacted areas of the state.

Republican success was also able to expand beyond the south and into the northeast, in the state of New York.  If the House flips as projected, the Republican Party might look to New York as the reason why.  Four House seats flipped red partly because Republican candidates focused their campaigns on a different issue -- crime.    A poll in mid-October by Quinnipiac University showed that New York voters felt the most serious issue facing their state was crime, with inflation and the economy second.  In a state with such high crime rates, voters wanted change in the form of lowered crime rates, increased safety, and stronger police forces.  Additionally, New York's crime rates have risen in the past year, with hate crimes rising 124.3 percent and rape and assault rising 10.9 percent and 13.9 percent respectively.  So, Republican candidates ran their campaigns on reducing crime and outwardly rejected existing crime laws, such as New York’s cash bail reform policy, which eliminated cash bail for low-level offenders.

Sean Patrick Maloney, New York’s former District 17 representative and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman, lost his seat to Republican Mike Lawler.  This makes Maloney the first active DCCC chairman in nearly 40 years to lose his seat.  Maloney even spoke with the New York Times and cited the Democratic Party’s failure to emphasize crime as one of the possible explanations for the democrat’s losses in the House.  New York’s reelected governor Kathy Hochul even altered her campaign in the weeks approaching the election to focus her policies on reducing crime.  Clearly, crime is a potent issue in the minds of New York voters.

Although the issues of crime and inflation did help the Republican Party in some states, it is also clear that the issue of abortion was underestimated.   Approaching 2024, it is possible that these three issues might remain important to voters and influence their candidate selection.  It is also important to note that issues important to voters vary by region.  A wise Republican presidential nominee would campaign in all regions and tap into what issues matter to voters in different regions, to establish a strong voter base.