For some, Donald Trump was moving out of the spotlight. New GOP 2024 hopefuls were emerging such as Florida’s Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence. As much as most Democrats and some Republicans want to move on, as it currently stands today, Trump is still inextricable from today’s Republican party. Indeed, most potential Republican 2024 contenders are not known for their unique stances on foreign policy or immigration, but rather their alignment with the former president and thoughts on the 2020 election. Donald Trump was beginning to drift out of focus for many Americans and even some Republicans. Then, reversing this trend, the raid on Mar-a-Lago happened.

On August 8, 2022, FBI agents entered Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida. In an unprecedented move, armed agents were seen swarming the resort and residence, carrying out boxes of documents. Not immediately clear what was found, it was reported that agents even searched Melania Trump’s closet. As time passed, law enforcement officials announced that they had uncovered documents with classified markings, which significantly contradicted a Trump team statement expressing they had turned over all classified documents after a previous search. Moreover, Trump’s team asserted that some of the seized documents were covered by attorney-client and executive privilege. Additionally, due to the classified nature of the documents, the public was not privy to exactly how sensitive these classified materials were. Further, Trump asserted that he declassified all documents and that some were protected by executive privilege. Biden-appointed Attorney General Merrick Garland assured the public that he “personally approved” of the execution of the search warrant. However, amongst Republican audiences, this assurance fell on mostly deaf ears.

In a party accustomed to the levers of institutions being used against it, there was little reason to trust Merrick Garland and the mainstream media outlets reporting on the raid. If one were to ask Republican voters, especially Trump supporters, why they distrust America’s institutions, they would have ready responses: the unfounded Russia collusion narrative, the suppression of the New York Post’s Hunter Biden story, Hillary Clinton’s treatment over having classified material on her email servers, and the media’s incessant coverage of January 6th as an event on par with 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, likening all Trump supporters and Republicans to the couple thousand individuals who stormed the capital.

Foul play was immediately suspected, and the FBI was accused of a partisan attack. This was to be expected, but the extent of Republican suspicion and condemnation was resounding.

Trump, “Trumpers,” and “Never Trumpers” alike questioned the raid. “Never Trumper” Maryland Governor Larry Hogan stated that “these are unprecedented circumstances that require unprecedented transparency and accountability from our government institutions,” adding, “If the federal government cannot ultimately provide overwhelming evidence that action was absolutely necessary, then it will only undermine faith in democracy and the rule of law, and further divide Americans.” Former Vice President Mike Pence said that “yesterday’s action undermines public confidence in our system of justice and Attorney General Garland must give a full accounting to the American people as to why this action was taken and he must do so immediately.” Ron DeSantis put out the following tweet: “the raid of MAL is another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents, while people like Hunter Biden get treated with kid gloves.” Of course, Trump himself did not approve of the raid. He quickly put out a lengthy statement. Here are some notable excerpts:

These are dark times for our Nation, as my beautiful home, Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents. Nothing like this has ever happened to a President of the United States before. After working and cooperating with the relevant Government agencies, this unannounced raid on my home was not necessary or appropriate. It is prosecutorial misconduct, the weaponization of the Justice System, and an attack by Radical Left Democrats who desperately don’t want me to run for President in 2024, especially based on recent polls, and who will likewise do anything to stop Republicans and Conservatives in the upcoming Midterm Elections.

The political persecution of President Donald J. Trump has been going on for years, with the now fully debunked Russia, Russia, Russia Scam, Impeachment Hoax #1, Impeachment Hoax #2, and so much more, it just never ends. It is political targeting at the highest level!

Hillary Clinton was allowed to delete and acid wash 33,000 E-mails AFTER they were subpoenaed by Congress. Absolutely nothing has happened to hold her accountable. She even took antique furniture, and other items from the White House.

As Trump’s supporters and the majority of the Republican party see it, the trend now seems clear. America’s institutions are opposed to Donald Trump and any future bid to win back the White House. If this is the case, the move may have backfired. Even some Democrats called out the raid as potentially propelling Trump forward into a second term. Andrew Yang, a 2020 candidate, said that a key part of the Trump appeal “has been that it’s him against a corrupt government establishment. This raid strengthens that case for millions of Americans who will see this as unjust persecution.” Disgraced former New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo asserted that the “DOJ must immediately explain the reason for its raid & it must be more than a search for inconsequential archives or it will be viewed as a political tactic and undermine any future credible investigation & legitimacy of January 6 investigations.”

The raid gives credence to one of Trump’s 2016 campaign slogans, “Drain the Swamp,” and Trump’s "Schedule F” executive order. Schedule F was signed in October 2020 by then President Trump. Effectively, it established a new employment category for federal employees who have roles determined to influence policy. While President Biden rescinded Schedule F, it

could make a comeback under a reenergized Republican party frustrated with being targeted by government agencies. In March, Trump spoke at a South Carolina rally and said, "We will pass critical reforms making every executive branch employee fireable by the president of the United States," adding that "the deep state must and will be brought to heel." According to Axios, “presidents typically get to replace more than 4,000 ‘political’ appointees.” However, Schedule F could apply to “as many as 50,000 federal workers out of a workforce of more than 2 million.” This enormous body of federal workers with protections that transfer from administration to administration is seen as the “deep state.” For Trump and others, the “deep state” is a threat responsible for thwarting and attacking Republicans without transparency and accountability. From his standpoint, there is no better example of this threat than the FBI raid in which the FBI, a government agency, raided the estate of a former president. By campaigning on fighting the “deep state,” Trump and other candidates could capitalize on the sentiment that the FBI and DOJ, alongside other agencies, are deeply partisan.

And now for the raid’s effects on polling and races. The elephant in the room is Donald Trump and 2024. According to a USA Today/Ipsos poll released on August 28th, 59 percent of Republican voters say that Trump should be the party’s nominee in 2024 and 82 percent of Republican voters believe that he can win the election. According to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted on August 10th, after the FBI agents raided the estate but before the unsealing of the search warrant and property receipt, the raid gave Trump a 10-point boost over his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Keep in mind that this now makes Trump’s lead over DeSantis somewhere between 30 and 40 points. In line with the USA Today/Ipsos poll, the poll found that 57 percent of Republican voters would like Trump to be the party’s nominee

over the 53 percent who said so in July. Notably, in the same POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, DeSantis’s support for the nomination dropped from 23 percent to 17 percent.

As for the midterms, there is some concern that the Mar-a-Lago raid could hurt Republicans. According to CBS, some of the top issues hurting Republicans for 2022 are abortion and Donald Trump. The 2020 election was largely seen as a referendum on Donald Trump, who was then a sitting president. CBS finds independents voting by four to one to oppose Donald Trump. However, Donald Trump continues to be in the spotlight in 2022 with high-profile endorsements and the Mar-a-Lago raid. With the focus on Trump, Democrats can take independent voters’ eyes off of President Joe Biden’s net negative issues such as inflation, gas prices, and the economy, potentially recapturing their vote.

With Donald Trump off the ballot this fall, the Mar-a-Lago raid doesn't appear to be the issue that will bring the Republicans to a sweeping victory. However, as polls are making clear, so far, the raid is unifying Republicans around Donald Trump should he choose to seek the party’s nomination in 2024 and pursue a second term. It remains to be seen how any potential criminal charges could affect this trend and whether such charges could convince Republican voters and Republican leadership to shift their support to someone other than the former president.

Disclaimer: At the time of this article’s creation, the Mar-a-Lago raid is still a dynamic, changing issue. Be sure to check for any new developments that may have occurred after this article’s creation and subsequent publication.