Welcome

Welcome to the fourth edition of Mock Convention 2024’s State of the Race newsletter, where we will bring what’s happening in the race towards 2024 straight to your inbox. Our goal is to make something you can rely on to help you stay informed. You don’t have to read every poll and every news story to get the most accurate information. We’ve got you covered.

We had a blast at the Presidential Gala, and it looks like you all did too as town met gown. Next stop: Convention Weekend, which is less than 90 days away!

I’m Foster Harris, the Political Chair for the 28th Mock Convention. Here’s what we have been looking at.

Wild Week

It’s been a wild few weeks in the world of politics, as Republicans were left largely disappointed by the 2023 election results in Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, and New Jersey. The next day, the major candidates, bar President Donald Trump, squared off in Miami for the third Republican presidential debate. A fourth debate is scheduled for December 6th in Tuscaloosa, but President Trump has already made clear that he won’t be in attendance.

The number one takeaway from Republicans’ disappointment on Tuesday was the most talked about issue at the debate on Wednesday: abortion. A full breakdown on how abortion impacted the 2023 state elections and what each candidate had to say on the debate stage can be found here.

A Lot at Stake in a Less-Watched Debate

After the first debate in Milwaukee, each consecutive debate has drawn in less viewers. The first debate had 13 million viewers, the second had 9.5 million viewers, and the third had 7.5 million viewers. Still, there was a lot at stake.

Primarily, these debates can have a substantial impact on fundraising numbers, as seen by Ambassador Nikki Haley's fundraising improvement after the first debate. Many big donors and donor groups intent on backing a non-Trump candidate have yet to coalesce or endorse a certain candidate. The debate stage, then, holds extra significance as groups like Americans for Prosperity and major donors are looking to back a single candidate as Iowa draws closer. You can safely bet that those folks could be counted in the audience or among the debate’s viewers.

Our take? Too close to call. Governor Ron DeSantis had his best debate performance yet, a much-needed reminder of his talent. He certainly found his groove with strong answers and a few strong punches thrown. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who polled as the debate’s winner in a 538/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, was bright throughout and excelled when sparring with the other candidates, namely Vivek Ramamswamy who also looked lively. She also polled as gaining the most support compared to before the debate, and she benefited from increased approvals as well. Haley spoke the second most out of any other candidate, only behind Senator Tim Scott, and was attacked the most.

Listen, both DeSantis and Haley did well, but one of them having a clear stand out performance over the other would have been monumental in the donor race. Instead, this debate maintained the status quo; Haley and DeSantis continue to lead the pack in the race to be the non-Trump candidate.

Off the Stage

Unlike the Democratic presidential nominating system, each state GOP in a Republican contest is empowered to create their own election and delegate rules as long as they are in line with the Republican National Committee rules and state law. As a result, each state’s election is run and their delegates are awarded in vastly different ways. These rules were finalized on October 1st.

Here’s an example of why these rules matter: Nevada, the third contest after Iowa and New Hampshire and alongside the U.S. Virgin Islands, introduced impactful new rules this go-around.

In Nevada, a conflict between the state’s Trump-friendly state Republican Party and Republican governor alongside his blue legislature has forced an intriguing scenario where candidates are either competing in the state law required primary, which awards zero delegates, or the state GOP run caucus, which awards all of the state’s delegates. Significantly, candidates choosing to opt in to the state-run primary are barred by the Nevada GOP from running in the delegate-awarding caucus.

Drawing the ire of some candidates, namely Governor Ron DeSantis, a new rule was enacted by the Nevada GOP, barring Super PACs from sending speakers and campaign material to caucus sites and getting data from the state party. This rule especially targets DeSantis’ Never Back Down PAC, which holds the uneven bulk of his campaign apparatus and cash on hand.

Caucuses advantage candidates with a large, organized, and cash-wealthy operation; DeSantis certainly has that, but much of it is housed in Never Back Down. As a result, some candidates found an incentive to run in the state-run primary beauty contest rather than the delegate-awarding caucus.

One candidate who is especially impacted by this dynamic and may have a Nevada nightmare? Nikki Haley. We have the full scoop here.

Dropping like Flies (get it?)

Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Tim Scott are the biggest names so far to drop out of the race. They are joined by Mayor Francis Suarez, Larry Elder, Perry Johnson, and former Congressman Will Hurd.

What We’re Reading:

• Vox | The secret delegate battle that will decide the 2024 Republican nominee

• 538 | Who Won the Third Republican Debate?

• New York Times | Inside Trump’s Backroom Effort to Lock Up the Nomination