State of the Race
The Political Team’s newsletter is a one-stop-shop for all your 2024 election news. Curated by the members of the Political team, it covers current politics affecting the election landscape, candidate announcements and profiles, and hot policy topics. We hope you’ll join us this election cycle!
Welcome
Welcome to Mock Convention 2024’s politics newsletter, where we will bring what’s happening in the race towards 2024 straight to your inbox. Our goal is to make something you can rely on to help you stay informed. You don’t have to read every poll and every news story to get the most accurate information. We’ve got you covered.
I’m Foster Harris, the Political Chair for the 28th Mock Convention. Here’s what the Political Department is looking at after a chaotic midterms cycle.
TLDR
More on all of this below, but here’s the short version. Republicans were largely disappointed on election night (or week?), failing to flip the Senate, only flipping one gubernatorial race, and only winning a small House majority. We covered the big races in each region and analyzed what this might mean for the 2024 race.
A blame game has taken root on Capitol Hill. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is dealing with the ramifications of an incoming small majority and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was challenged in GOP leadership elections for the first time in 15 years.
Former President Donald Trump, who officially announced his 2024 campaign at Mar-A-Lago, has taken much of the blame, with the candidates he boosted in key states largely underperforming. He’s likely hoping that his toned-down announcement will change the narrative in his favor as DeSantis gains momentum.
What’s New?
We officially have our first 2024 candidate, and surprise, surprise it’s former President Donald Trump. Trump announced his candidacy on the night of November 15th at Mar-A-Lago with an on-script, toned-down speech. Our Republican Party Analyst, Henry Haden, covered Trump’s buttoned-up announcement. But his announcement also comes on the heels of a disappointing midterm cycle for Republicans, where Trump-propelled candidates in key states underperformed and popularity surged for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Our Political Chair (Foster Harris), Republican Party Analyst (Henry Haden), and National Political Analyst (Jake Winston) wrote on this topic, analyzing each potential candidate’s midterms strategy and how the “red mist” might impact the 2024 race.
If anything is for certain, the much anticipated red wave—forecasted by pundits across the political spectrum—failed to materialize. This midterm cycle heavily favored Republicans, both in terms of historical trends and the number of vulnerable Democratic seats after redistricting. Now, it is clear that Republicans are going to just eke out a slim majority after failing to flip the Senate. The official Senate margin will be determined by a December 6th runoff between Herschel Walker and Senator Raphael Warnock.
This disappointing outcome has generated turmoil on Capitol Hill. Beau Hancock, our Territories Regional Chair, has focused on the ongoing finger-pointing in D.C. that could have serious impacts on House and Senate leadership dynamics in the next Congress, as well as the 2024 race.
On the House side, current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy won the conference’s nomination to be the 118th Congress’ Speaker of the House. However, he failed to reach the 218 votes that he’ll need to officially clinch the speakership during the official floor vote at the start of the next Congress.
On the Senate side, current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is being challenged in another manner, as Trump allies in the Senate seek to delay the chamber’s leadership elections. A small group of senators, including Senator Josh Hawley, are actively blaming McConnell for the disappointing midterm results, saying that McConnell caved to the Democrats and failed to offer an alternative platform. However, McConnell easily defeated Senator Rick Scott to secure his role as Minority Leader for another term. Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, repeatedly clashed with McConnell during the midterms over candidate quality and campaign funds. After an unusual and tense three hour GOP clear the air lunch, which reportedly got heated at times, Scott challenged McConnell, while McConnell and his allies questioned Scott’s leadership of the NRSC. McConnell maintained his role the next day.
Candidate quality appears to be at least one explanation for the red wave that never crested. Kate Hannon, our West Regional Chair, analyzed why Kari Lake was able to outperform Blake Masters in Arizona by such a large margin. Ford Webb, our Midwest Regional Chair, explored how John Fetterman’s gains in red, blue-collar Pennsylvania helped him defeat Dr. Mehmet Oz. Finally, our Northeastern Regional Chair, Connor McNamara, detailed why Don Bolduc lost in New Hampshire while Republican Governor Chris Sununu easily won re-election. Our Southeastern Regional Chair, Pierson Gammage, covered how Rep. Lauren Boebert, a MAGA icon in Colorado, almost lost her seat.
Still, Republicans made gains among certain demographic groups and celebrated a red tsunami in New York and Florida. Our South Regional Chair, Robert Mish, analyzed how Mayra Flores was able outperform Trump’s impressive 2020 Texas margins, despite losing to Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez in the newly merged 34th district. Our Central Regional Chair, Patrick France, covered Ron DeSantis’ epic gubernatorial win in Florida, flipping key counties like Miami-Dade and crushing Trump’s 2020 numbers. Finally, our Platform Chair, Claire Cerone, wrote on how Lee Zeldin and Ron DeSantis used policy to defy expectations in New York and Florida.