Headlines declaring her the winner of all three Republican presidential debates, topping Governor Ron DeSantis in New Hampshire polls, greatly improving her cash haul, and working alongside an elite campaign team, Ambassador Nikki Haley is surging in the 2024 race. However, she may be staring at a potential nightmare scenario in Nevada, the third state contest alongside the U.S. Virgin Islands and arriving after Iowa and New Hampshire.

Unlike the Democratic presidential nominating system, each state GOP in a Republican contest is empowered to create their own election and delegate rules as long as they are in line with the Republican National Committee rules and state law. In Nevada, a conflict between the state’s Trump-friendly state Republican Party and Republican governor and blue legislature has forced an intriguing scenario where candidates are either competing in the state law required primary, which awards zero delegates, or the state GOP run caucus, which awards all of the state’s delegates. Significantly, candidates choosing to opt in to the state-run primary are barred by the Nevada GOP from running in the delegate-awarding caucus.

Drawing the ire of some candidates, namely Governor Ron DeSantis, a new rule was enacted by the Nevada GOP, barring Super PACs from sending speakers and campaign material to caucus sites and getting data from the state party. This rule especially targets DeSantis’ Never Back Down PAC, which holds the uneven bulk of his campaign apparatus and cash on hand. Caucuses advantage candidates with a large, organized, and cash-wealthy operation; DeSantis certainly has that, but much of it is housed in Never Back Down. As a result, some candidates found an incentive to run in the state-run primary beauty contest rather than the delegate-awarding caucus.

With the October filing deadline having passed, we know who is running in each contest. In the February 6th state-run primary, which awards zero delegates, Ambassador Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott, and Vice President Mike Pence are on the ballot.

Then, Vice President Pence and Senator Scott dropped out of the contest.

Now that Scott has dropped out, Haley is walking into a Nevada nightmare. The only candidate on the ballot in the primary still actively running, she cannot describe her performance as winning the state. She is also alienated from the rest of the field and blocked from winning any delegates. While she might see vote share benefits from Pence and Scott dropping out elsewhere, Haley is essentially out of the pivotally early Nevada contest.

Maybe this gives Haley an opportunity to spend more time back home in South Carolina, shoring up hometown support (although President Trump leads in the polls there, with Haley currently a healthy second place). Maybe the DeSantis campaign prioritizes Super Tuesday states and is running in the Nevada caucus because of the low threshold to receive delegates, which seems to be the smart move. Either way, looking at Nevada, Haley’s primary gamble has seemingly backfired.