While many Americans indulged in summertime relaxation, lawmakers spent the summer months reacting to a flurry of impactful current events and passing large and transformative pieces of legislation. Caught in the crossfire of the political headlines, Republicans with their eyes on 2024, coming from an array of different political backgrounds, spent the summer months positioning themselves for a successful campaign for the party nomination and pursuing different strategies to pave their way towards the 2024 primary contest. In between visits around the country, stumping for candidates, and running their own reelection campaigns—all actions indicating interest in a 2024 run—how they responded to 2022’s summer of change demonstrates the diversity in viewpoints and policy positions that make each potential candidate distinct. A lot of the policies enacted and Court decisions rendered rested on major traditional planks of the Republican Party’s agenda, and how each potential candidate reacted and voted on such moments will likely impact the 2024 race.

Dobbs v. Jackson

On June 24, the Supreme Court voted in Dobbs v. Jackson to overturn the precedent established in Roe v. Wade and Casey v. Planned Parenthood, shifting the Court’s understanding of abortion being a protected right to being open to the legislative process. Since the Dobbs decision, twelve states have fully banned abortion. Two of these states are home to governors who are eyeing a 2024 run: South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.

Hutchinson has since expressed regret over not including exceptions in his state’s ban on abortion despite signing the legislation when presented before him. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a fifteen-week ban on abortion in Florida back in April of this year, while Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has advocated for the same fifteen-week ban with the current Virginia statute cutting abortion access off after twenty-six weeks. Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland has seen the state expand access in 2022 and had publicly stated that when Republicans fight against abortion, they lose voters. Largely viewed as a state issue, the Dobbs decision offered Republicans a massive win on a longtime policy sticking point while offering governors with an eye on the presidency the ability to act in the spotlight. Thus, while former cabinet members and senators celebrated and opined on the decision, only a few truly stood out. Former Vice President Mike Pence was one of the first on the scene to respond after the decision was announced. He praised the decision while stating the work will not end until the practice is eradicated, echoing his past calls for a nationwide abortion ban without saying the phrase itself. Former President Donald Trump celebrated on Truth Social, attributing the landmark decision to his appointment of three of six justices who delivered the victory for pro-life advocates. Privately though, Trump expressed that the decision will hurt Republicans in the 2022 midterms.

A few potential candidates stood out in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision. Donald Trump is the clear winner as his Presidency delivered the court appointments leading to the decision, something that Republican voters will be sure to remember. Mike Pence also stood out with an immediate and strong response to the decision. Republican voters who believe the decision did not go far enough and want abortion banned can also look to Pence as their candidate on the issue. Larry Hogan is the only other person that stands out as the other candidates had similar responses. There are pro-choice Republicans who, if they feel they still fit into the party, would look to Hogan as their candidate on abortion. Governors including Kristi Noem and Ron DeSantis also benefited by an increase in state power to deliver for pro-life voters.

Foreign Policy

On the foreign policy side, there were two major votes that allowed voters to see where candidates stand on U.S.-China policy, as well as on diplomacy and allyship abroad. The first comes in the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act, which aimed to spend federal money to promote competition in creating semiconductors against China, which has dominated the manufacturing of the product. The initiative is set to build new plants for manufacturing, creating new jobs. The bill had bipartisan support, passing a 50-50 Senate with a vote of 64-33. Notably, potential candidates in the Senate, including Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, and Tim Scott, voted against the legislation, condemning the price tag amidst high inflation. Mike Pompeo was one of the few potential Republican candidates who advocated for the bill because it would allow the United States to better compete with China. Nikki Haley had a different counter to the bill, simply stating that “we don’t need to be like China to compete with China.” Haley’s position posits that the United States should look for other ways to compete with China instead of doing what they are already doing to compete.

The other major foreign policy vote of the summer came on whether to admit Finland and Sweden into NATO. The countries were moved to pursue membership after Russia invaded Ukraine. Being a member of the organization strengthens United States relations with both

countries and offers Sweden and Finland NATO’s financial benefits. Potential 2024 candidates not in the Senate were all in favor of allowing the countries to join NATO because it would be a message to Russia that Europe and the United States stand firmly against their aggression. Josh Hawley was the only potential candidate in the Senate to vote against the bill and the lone “nay” vote across the entire Senate. His rationale was that the voters make the United State too focused on Russia when China is the country’s biggest threat. Hawley was ridiculed in the press, making him stick out as weak on Russia while his protest “no” tried to make him seem strong on China.

A lot of Republicans looking toward 2024 chose to take strongly partisan positions on foreign policy rather than be a part of easy bipartisan wins. Mike Pompeo stands out as the strongest on foreign policy for his backing of the popular CHIPS Act, his advocacy for Taiwan and Ukraine, and his push for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Josh Hawley and Nikki Haley took stances against bills in an attempt to stand out, offering little benefit. At times failing to tow the typical Republican standpoint of strengthening the United States against China and Russia whenever possible, Hawley and Haley might take heat for these stances later on.

Veterans Issues

For domestic policy, there were also two major votes that allowed voters to see where candidates stand on issues at home. The first one came in the form of the Honoring our PACT Act, or PACT Act, which aimed to give funding to veterans to receive medical care from a variety of toxins they may have been exposed to, such as agent orange for Vietnam veterans or burn pits for those who served in Afghanistan or Iraq. The bill passed in June, but an error in the language forced another Senate vote in late July. The CHIPS Act had been passed earlier in the day when it was announced swing vote, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), would vote for new budget reconciliation. The bipartisan votes previously received on the CHIPS Act and other Biden initiatives came under the belief the Democrats would not push through a partisan reconciliation package. Feeling double-crossed, the Republicans in the Senate used the PACT Act to show the Democrats they were still united. The failed vote on the PACT Act played poorly for Republicans. Ted Cruz, of all the 2024 hopefuls, took the worst media beating as he was seen fist bumping a Senate colleague after voting to decline expanded healthcare to sick veterans. Cotton, Hawley, and Tim Scott joined Cruz in voting against the bill to retaliate against Democrats. The next week, Republicans went back to vote on the bill passed the PACT Act in a bipartisan vote. The whole ordeal made these potential candidates look out of touch with American voters, despite claims of Democrats tampering with the language of the bill.

Inflation Reduction Act

Perhaps the most surprising news of the summer arrived when President Joe Biden struck a deal with Senator Joe Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema to create the Inflation Reduction Act. The bill is intended to reduce the deficit by increasing taxes on corporations, increasing IRS capabilities and specifically targeting those on the upper end of the income bracket, and lowering the cost of prescription drugs through price negotiation. The money will also be spent on new climate initiatives, like cleaning up pollution and creating new jobs in green energy. The bill was

opposed by every Republican that may run in 2024. Critiques were similar across the board: the bill will raise taxes on the middle class, the price tag is too high, the bill would add to inflation, and better equipping the IRS will hurt middle-class taxpayers.

The stances taken by Republican candidates on these issues could very well define discourse on policy between the candidates in 2024, especially given that a potentially post-midterms divided House and Senate might fail to pass any meaningful legislation. 2024 is still a ways away, but the policy jockeying has already begun.