The 2022 Midterm Elections proved disappointing, to say the least, for Republicans. For weeks pundits from Fox News to CNN have been predicting substantial gains in the House and the potential to take control of the Senate. Failure in high-profile races, like the Oz campaign, has soured Republicans' attitudes on the Hill and the blame game has begun.

Trump-supporting Republicans, including Ron Johnson, Rick Scott, and Mike Lee, have proposed a delay of the party’s leadership elections, apparently in an attempt to heed, or pay lip service to, calls to unseat Mitch McConnell from his leadership role. These efforts are unlikely to succeed.  

Fingers being pointed at Kevin McCarthy have opened up a battle for House leadership. Jason Miller, the organizer of Trump’s candidacy announcement, said to the New York Times that McCarthy “must be much more declarative that he supports President Trump in 2024.” Former House Freedom Caucus chairman Congressman Andy Biggs challenged McCarthy at the GOP leadership nominations on November 15th, limiting McCarthy from receiving the 218 or more votes he’ll need for the official House floor vote at the very start of the 118th Congress. That nomination vote, 188 to 31, demonstrates the fault lines in McCarthy’s bid for the speakership. Although he is likely to rally the party behind himself as the party’s nominee, he risks a moment a of déjà vu from the last time he ran for speaker. This time around, however, the Freedom Caucus appears fractured and McCarthy can likely depend on Congressman Jim Jordan and current Minority Whip Steve Scalise as allies.

Pressure on McCarthy, along with higher ambitions, could also potentially explain why Rep. Elise Stefanik, Chairwoman of the Republican Conference, already has endorsed Trump to run in 2024, saying “It is time for Republicans to unite around the most popular Republican in America.” Stefanik defeated Florida Congressman Byron Donalds to remain as the GOP’s Conference Chair in the party’s leadership elections.

On the Hill, the midterms have, at the very least, prevented an immediate strong wave of support for Trump. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis named Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the “current leader of the Republican Party.” Key Trump allies, including Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator Josh Hawley have punted. Graham said that he’d wait to endorse a candidate until after Georgia and Hawley said that leadership elections were his only focus. Current Senate Minority Whip John Thune said that he wasn’t going to endorse a candidate and South Carolina Congressman Ralph Norman said that he “didn’t understand why [Trump] is going after DeSantis.”

The midterms have caused a broader fracture in the Republican Party as well, with establishment Republicans pointing the blame at Trump for choosing poor candidates and being an “anchor” to Republicans across the country. On the other hand, further right Republicans have blamed McConnell and other establishment members of the GOP, accusing them of withholding campaign funds from anti-establishment and pro-Trump candidates. McConnell, for example, reportedly lobbied members for campaign funds to be given to his Senate Leadership Fund instead of the Rick Scott-chaired National Republican Senatorial Committee and then refused to invest in races, like Arizona, where the SLF allegedly viewed candidates as being weak.

However, even amongst Trump supporters, his appeal has appeared to decrease in the immediate term. Far-right commentator for the Daily Wire Matt Walsh, said on Twitter that he “would vastly prefer unity right now over infighting and sniping. But that’s up to Trump. If he continues his ego-driven meltdown, he’ll drag the whole movement into this shit and nobody comes out better for it.” Trump’s continued insistence that victory is his to take credit for and that he bears no blame for midterm losses has caused many Republicans to tire of his famously aggressive rhetoric.

Across the aisle, the poor performance by the GOP has enlivened Democrats, apparently boosting President Biden’s confidence as he stated, “I’m not going to change”, perhaps a boast that the results are proof he is doing a good job for America. According to The Hill, Biden’s defying of the odds has given him the leverage to become the 2024 nominee “if he wants it.” This may cause unforeseen challenges two years from now if Republicans are now able to choose a potentially more viable candidate than Trump.

The silver-lining for Republicans has been their performance in the state of Florida. Praise has surrounded the unified approach of Florida Republican candidates who won races in Florida by bigger margins than Trump in Texas in 2020. Whispers of a DeSantis presidential campaign have turned into shouts, as the Florida governor’s success and the failures of Trump-backed candidates in key states have caused some to think it is time for new leadership in the party.

Overall, the surprising outcomes of the midterms have resulted in turmoil for the Republican Party, but in doing so, have opened up the playing field for more potential candidates in 2024 as Trump faces immediate backlash. But will the backlash continue, or will Trump emerge from yet another setback unscathed?