The red wave predicted by many pundits failed to crest during the 2022 midterm elections. While Republicans are likely to win back control of the House of Representatives, the margin will be much smaller than expected. The Senate still hangs in the balance, with Nevada too close to call and a scheduled Georgia run-off. Republicans were only able to flip a single gubernatorial race, in Nevada.

The votes cast on November 8th offered a sizable test of each potential 2024 presidential candidate’s brand and strategy. While the long-term impacts of the 2022 midterms on the 2024 race remain unknown, there is no question that the below-expectations GOP performance has the potential to shift the dynamics of the Republican race to the White House.

Primary Dynamics

In Pennsylvania, the Senate primary was not supposed to be competitive. Once Trump-endorsed candidate Sean Parnell dropped out, remaining candidates David McCormick, Kathy Barnette, and newcomer Dr. Mehmet Oz fought for former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Eventually, Oz received Trump’s blessing over the perceived front-runner McCormick—reportedly drawing backlash within the party. Meanwhile, 2024 hopefuls including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Texas Senator Ted Cruz endorsed McCormick over Oz. Pundits correctly predicted an Oz victory, but the eventual primary results were far closer. The former television show host just barely edged out McCormick by less than a thousand votes. There is no doubt that Trump’s heavy involvement in the Pennsylvania primary dragged Oz, a candidate with no political experience, into a general election to face Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. Oz, the Trump-endorsed candidate, lost to Fetterman, who suffered setbacks from a stroke early in the general election campaign, by a relatively wide margin. Fetterman’s 4.4 point victory improved upon Biden’s winning 2020 Pennsylvania performance, flipping retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey’s seat with an impressive display in a relatively worse political environment.

 In Georgia, Trump convinced former Senator David Perdue to challenge incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp instead of making another run for one of Georgia’s Senate seats, a move based on differences between Trump and Kemp over the 2020 election. Wading into Georgia’s Senate race, the former president propelled former football star Herschel Walker to an easy primary win. Both moves went against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s early designs, which saw McConnell try to convince Perdue to run for Senate instead. Deciding that fighting Trump in Georgia would not be worth it, McConnell eventually endorsed Walker. When Perdue announced his challenge, many believed the race would be close—especially after Kemp was booed at the 2021 Georgia GOP convention. However, Governor Kemp made good use of his position to pass popular laws allowing permitless carry of firearms and suspending the gas tax. He was also able to significantly outraise Perdue. Kemp easily defeated Perdue by over 50 points and defeated Stacey Abrams by 7.6 points. Walker trailed Senator Raphael Warnock by 0.9 points on election night, triggering a December 6th runoff. Kemp outperformed Walker by a staggering 8.5 points, suggesting a high number of split-ticket voters.

In Arizona, the governor primary became hotly contested when Trump and his former Vice President Mike Pence backed two different GOP candidates. In September of 2021, nearly a year before the August 2022 primary, Donald Trump endorsed former Fox 10 news anchor Kari Lake. About a month before the primary, Pence endorsed Lake’s closest opponent, Karrin Taylor Robson. Pence asserted that Robson was best equipped to tackle major issues facing Arizona, including border security, crime, and parental rights. The Trump-backed Lake, meanwhile, made election integrity a focus of her campaign, an emerging pattern among Trump-backed candidates. Lake narrowly defeated Robson by 4.9 percent. Lake’s general election matchup against Democrat Katie Hobbs remains too close to call, while Trump’s chosen Senate candidate, Blake Masters, underperformed Lake’s margins and lost to Senator Mark Kelly.

 In Wisconsin, both primary candidates in the gubernatorial race allowed election integrity to be a pillar of their respective campaigns. Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, deemed to be the front runner, worked hard for Trump’s endorsement and was endorsed by Pence, Cruz, and former Ambassador to the United Nations and Governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley. When Tim Michels joined the race, Trump invited Michels and Kleefisch to Mar-a-Lago and eventually endorsed Michels. Trump expressed a belief that Michels was stronger on issues like inflation, crime, and border security and was better adept at tackling the election integrity issue in Wisconsin. While offering another narrow primary victory, the Trump-endorsed candidate became the Republican nominee and lost to incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers by 3.4 percent.

There is no question that Trump often played kingmaker throughout the primary cycle. However, following a disappointing general election showing from many of Trump’s picks in key races, this could prove to be a double edged sword that on one side reinforces his ability to energize his base in a primary and on the other opens him up to blame where his candidates faltered.

Post-Primary Endorsements

After the primary results rolled in, most potential 2024 candidates endorsed similar candidates. Out of the 11 candidates endorsed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, for example, only losing Colorado Senate candidate Joe O’Dea was not endorsed by Trump. Pence only strayed from Trump by endorsing incumbent Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. Haley strayed from Trump with endorsements for Kemp in Georgia and Joe O’Dea in Colorado. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo only went against Trump when he endorsed Ron DeSantis in his reelection campaign. Finally, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin aligned with Trump in seven of his endorsements, departing with the former president on Kemp in Georgia and Christine Drazan in Oregon. Youngkin specifically focused his out-of-state presence on close gubernatorial races, hoping to repeat his success in Virginia on a national stage.

Who Went Where

Former President Donald Trump was in demand across the country, holding his signature rallies for endorsed candidates. Trump focused on certain races more than others, perhaps aware of states where his influence could make a positive impact. Out west, Trump held rallies for Kari Lake and Blake Masters in Arizona and Joe Lombardo and Adam Laxalt in Nevada. In Alaska, Trump helped campaign for Sarah Palin as well as Kelly Tshibaka. In the southeast, Trump supported Herschel Walker in Georgia, Ted Budd in North Carolina, and Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. Notably, Ron DeSantis was not invited to Trump’s rally in Miami for Marco Rubio. Trump made a stop in Maryland to support Dan Cox in the northeast and held rallies for Ohio candidates JD Vance and Mike DeWine, Michigan candidate Tudor Dixon, Iowa candidate Chuck Grassley, and Illinois candidate Darren Bailey in the midwest.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis campaigned with many of the same candidates. Unlike Trump, DeSantis stopped in New York to support Lee Zeldin. Out west, the Florida governor helped support Lake and Masters in Arizona, campaigned for Laxalt in Nevada, and pitched in for Ronchetti and Herrell in New Mexico. DeSantis also held a fundraising event in Utah and campaigned for Derek Schmidt in Kansas. Like Trump, he traveled to Wisconsin to campaign for Tim Michels and Pennsylvania to rally with Doug Mastriano. In the southeast, DeSantis spent much of his effort in Florida focused on his own reelection and supporting Florida Republicans, who widely outperformed expectations.

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin also campaigned with many Trump endorsees; however, he also had a few unique visits. In the southeast, Youngkin was highly focused on house races in Virginia but also ventured out to Georgia to support Brian Kemp. Out west, Youngkin went to Oregon to campaign for Christine Drazan, Arizona for Kari Lake, and Nevada for Joe Lombardo.

Youngkin also went to South Dakota for Kristi Noem, Kansas for Derek Schmidt, and Nebraska for the state’s GOP convention. In the midwest, Youngkin went to Wisconsin to support Tim Michels and to Michigan to support Tuder Dixon. Up in the northeast, he campaigned in Connecticut, New York, and Maine.

Former Vice President Mike Pence may have departed from Trump in the primary cycle, but his general election strategy largely mirrored the former president’s. In the northeast, Pence campaigned in New Hampshirite for Senate candidate Don Bolduc. In the southeast, Pence went to Virginia Beach to campaign for Jen Kiggans, who looked to flip VA-2, to Georgia to campaign for Governor Kemp’s reelection, and to North Carolina for Senate candidate Ted Budd. Pence visited New Mexico to campaign for gubernatorial candidate Mark Ronchetti. In the midwest, Pence went to Michigan to campaign for Tom Barrett in a competitive House race against incumbent Elissa Slotkin. He also traveled to Kansas to stump for gubernatorial candidate Derek Schmidt and Iowa for Senator Chuck Grassley. In the west, Pence visited California for incumbent Congressman David Valadao, who faced a tough reelection bid. Pence was also invited to give talks in D.C. and at Liberty University’s convocation. He also visited Arizona with outgoing Governor Doug Doucy to visit the southern border.

Former Ambassador to the United Nations and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley also visited a number of key states. In the west, Haley went to Nevada for Senate candidate Adam Laxalt. She visited Iowa multiple times, with the first being for incumbent House member Randy Feenstra and the other for a “Women on a Mission” tour to multiple Iowa cities with Governor Kim Reynolds and incumbent House members Marrianette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson. She also campaigned in Wisconsin for Senator Ron Johnson. Down south, Haley visited Texas twice—once for Governor Greg Abbott and the other time for House hopefuls Monica De La Cruz and incumbent Mayra Flores. In the southeast, Haley went to Georgia for senate candidate Herschel Walker. Haley went to New Hampshire for senate candidate Don Bolduc and Pennsylvania for Mehmet Oz in the northeast. Haley also went on a book tour for her new book, which took her to multiple states across the country.

New York and Florida’s Red Wave

In New York, Representative Lee Zeldin led a statewide red wave that nearly placed him in the Governor’s Mansion. Zeldin’s strong showing appeared to carry Republicans across the state, scoring massive victories like unseating Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney. DeSantis, Youngkin, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie all campaigned for Zeldin in the Empire State.

In Florida, DeSantis, who privately announced his goal of greatly improving upon the tight margins of Trump’s 2020 Florida win, beat his rival, former Florida Republican turned Democrat Governor Charlie Crist by nearly 20 points. Even more impressive, DeSantis flipped the majority Hispanic Miami-Dade County, which leaned Democratic by 29.4 points in 2016 and 7.3 points in 2020. DeSantis won Miami-Dade by 11 points. He also flipped Pinellas, Duval, and Palm Beach counties—traditional Democratic strongholds. While Trump won Florida by 1.2 percent in 2016 and 3.2 percent in 2020, DeSantis won by 19.4 percent and Senator Marco Rubio won re-election by 16.4 points.

Prior to election night, Trump began to take a more aggressive tone towards DeSantis—naming him “Ron DeSanctimonious” and leaving the Florida Governor off of the invite list for his near election night Florida rally. Crediting himself for DeSantis’ electoral success, Trump has rarely questioned DeSantis’ policy successes. Those attacks have only increased after election night, with Trump issuing a number of statements and posts on Truth Social targeting DeSantis and later Youngkin.

Conclusion

In a NewsNation interview the day before the election, Trump asserted that “I think if they win, I should get all the credit, and if they lose, I should not be blamed at all. But it will probably be just the opposite.” This apparent prophecy has come true. The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, and the New York Post all published articles and stories centered around a “time to move on” theme, and pundits such as Ben Shapiro also faulted Trump. Teasing a 2024 presidential bid, boosting first-time and underperforming candidates, and challenging strong incumbents who might have won in the general election, Trump’s buildup to election night might prove to be costly. Moreover, Trump’s statements targeting DeSantis and Youngkin appear to have been received poorly among his advisors and key players in the Republican Party at large.

It remains to be seen if this backlash will last. Trump has built a durable network of support within the party and has demonstrated an exceptional ability to weather setbacks. As he targets DeSantis, Trump could slow the Florida Governor’s momentum with a barrage of attacks or lose credibility to an unconcerned rival. Trump could also potentially shift the blame to others in the party, such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who reportedly urged Republicans to move campaign funds to his ally-controlled Senate Leadership Fund rather than the Rick Scott-led National Republican Senatorial Committee. Trump also tightened his control over the party in safe-seat primary battles and delivered a small number of victories in key states, such as propelling Senate candidate JD Vance to a convincing general election win against a strong challenger in Ohio. Finally, Trump announcing his candidacy at Mar-A-Lago could change the narrative and draw attention away from his rivals.

The 2022 midterm elections left Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a strong position. A YouGov survey, which is unlikely to be indicative due to its national focus and small sample size, observed DeSantis surge against Trump in a hypothetical matchup, leading the former president by 2 percent. The same poll reflected a 10 point Trump lead in October. Another post-election poll commissioned by the Texas GOP including nine potential candidates showed DeSantis with an 11 point lead over Trump. And finally, the Club for Growth released four polls which displayed an 11 point DeSantis lead in Iowa, a 15 point lead in New Hampshire, a 26 point lead in Florida, and a 20 point lead in Georgia. Moreover, DeSantis’ impressive Florida victory and consistent support for Lee Zeldin in New York, the other outlier red wave state, allow DeSantis to build a credible case for the 2024 nomination.

Still, a November 10-14th Politico and Morning Consult poll maintained a 14 point Trump advantage. Still, the report shows a DeSantis surge, with the Florida Governor seeing a 6 point bump compared to the same survey collected before the midterm elections.

While the long-term impacts of the midterm results are yet to be seen, there is no question that the dynamics of the 2024 race for the Republican nomination have changed. The first potential shift in the race for ‘24 primary election has arrived.