Incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) defeated Don Bolduc (R) on November 8th with 54 percent of the vote, retaining a key Democratic seat in the midterms. Republicans had gone into election day hoping to use issues of inflation and crime, coupled with President Biden’s historic unpopularity, to flip this battleground Senate seat. Hassan was seen as a potentially vulnerable candidate; she had, after all, only won by 0.1 points in 2020. A flip in New Hampshire would have been a strong sign of a “red wave” and an imminent sweep of both chambers of Congress by Republicans. The wave failed to materialize however, and New Hampshire instead better matched the national narrative of a broad Republican failure to capitalize on what was expected to be a very bad year for Democrats.

Hassan ended up beating Bolduc by a full 10 points, and outperformed Biden’s margin of victory in 2020 by 1.8 points. But like other races across the country, it was most likely Bolduc’s particular weakness, not Hassan’s strength, that led to such an unexpectedly decisive win. Bolduc underperformed incumbent Governor Chris Sununu, his popular Republican counterpart in the gubernatorial election, by over 13 points.

The disparity between Sununu’s success and Bolduc’s failure may have stemmed from Bolduc’s tumultuous relationship with Donald Trump throughout his campaign. Bolduc positioned himself as a “Trump Republican” in the primaries, embracing an election integrity focus to defeat the more moderate Chuck Norse. When he secured the candidacy, Trump noticed – but stopped short of endorsing him.

Bolduc shifted gears in the general election, backing down on the election integrity issue and focusing more on inflation and other bread-and-butter issues. In a recent interview, Bolduc stated that “My advice to [Trump] was that if you come up to New England to campaign, and you do it on election denial, you won’t get anywhere.”[5] Trump did not visit New Hampshire during the midterm season. While he did eventually endorse Bolduc, the candidate largely ignored it, while at the same time embracing endorsements from figures like Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Ted Cruz, and – notably – Ron DeSantis.[6]

Following Bolduc’s defeat, Trump lashed out online, claiming “Don Bolduc was a very nice guy, but he lost tonight when he disavowed, after his big primary win, his long-standing stance on Election Fraud in the 2020 Presidential Primary. Had he stayed strong and true, he would have won, easily. Lessons Learned!!!"[7] Bolduc responded in an interview, saying instead that “Up here in New Hampshire we are going to have a lot to say [in 2024], and, I have to tell you, President Trump is going to have some very serious competition. If he doesn’t decide to take a different approach, I don’t think he is going to fare well.”[8] The accuracy of these claims remains to be seen, but it is clear that Trump’s perceived involvement muddied the waters of the New Hampshire race, as it did to races across the country.