Prediction: Romney will win Iowa

Washington and Lee University's Mock Convention predicts that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will narrowly edge out Texas Congressman Ron Paul to win the Iowa Caucuses on January 3rd.  Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, benefiting from a recent momentum surge stemming from the deterioration of the Gingrich campaign, his extensive time on the ground in Iowa, and support from the Christian right will finish a high third.

Rationale

Though we were prepared to predict a Paul victory as recently as two days ago, we are now calling for a Romney, Paul, Santorum finish.  In addition to relying on advice from contacts on the ground in Iowa and our ever helpful group of national advisers, we have been deflating Romney poll numbers while holding Paul numbers steady to account for the intensity gap between the two candidates.  However,  this adjustment results in a virtual tie at the top of the ballot and we feel that of the 9 to 14 percent of likely voters that remain undecided, many more are likely to swing to Romney than to Paul on January 3rd.  Furthermore, trend lines indicate a steady, if relatively small, growth in Romney support over the last several days; Paul support has remained relatively constant over this period, and we believe that he is at or very near his support ceiling in Iowa.

If, for some reason, the Republican caucus turnout in Iowa does not approach or exceed the 120,000 that voted in 2008, Romney’s chances for victory will be significantly reduced.  Yet, as a result of a combination of the favorable weather forecast and the lack of a competitive Democratic primary, we are expecting voter turnout to be relatively high.

National Implications

From a national perspective, Romney will be the biggest winner coming out of Iowa by virtue of a Gingrich loss.  While finishing in first will provide a marginal boost to the Romney campaign, the more lasting impact will come from the absence of a legitimate anti-Romney standard bearer emerging from the caucuses.  Because of this, even if our top ballot prediction is incorrect, and Paul manages to top Romney on election night, the caucuses will still represent a victory for the Romney camp.

In order for the race to remain competitive going forward, someone must beat Romney in either New Hampshire or South Carolina.  While a Romney loss in New Hampshire seems unlikely at this point, it is conceivable that if Romney makes a major mistake, and Huntsman erodes part of the Romney base, a candidate not named Mitt could win the nation’s first primary.  If that does not happen, either Perry or Gingrich must win South Carolina in order to keep hope alive and potentially win in the ever-important Florida primary.