Romney Returns – Mock Convention Predicts Romney Tidal Wave in Florida

Benefiting from strong debate performances and massive financial and organizational advantages, Romney has almost completely reversed Gingrich’s post-South Carolina momentum and is poised for a double-digit victory in the Sunshine State.

Gingrich rode into Florida with a resurgent campaign following a landslide, come-from-behind victory in South Carolina. In the weeks leading up to the South Carolina Primary, Romney’s lead in Florida seemed to be virtually insurmountable. But, following Gingrich’s remarkable comeback in South Carolina, the former Speaker quickly overtook Romney in Florida polls. However, the Gingrich who commanded the debates in South Carolina failed to appear on the stage in Florida and was beaten back by Romney's newfound aggression. Gingrich’s faltering debate performances, combined with an all-out attack from the Romney campaign and much of the Republican establishment, allowed Romney to quickly regain lost ground. To make matters worse, Gingrich also managed to draw the ire of Senator Marco Rubio and former Governor Jeb Bush, virtually sealing his fate in Florida.

In the race for third, Rick Santorum will again finish ahead of Congressman Ron Paul. Santorum was bolstered by strong debate performance and Paul’s decision to neither heavily advertise nor actively campaign in the state. Santorum, on the other hand has invested time, energy, and money to appeal to conservative Republicans in Florida, and, while it will not be enough to overtake the frontrunners here, his efforts will be enough to save him from the embarrassment of finishing behind Paul in such a crucial swing state.

As of today, we expect Romney to receive 40 to 46% of the vote, with Gingrich coming in second with 28 to 34%, Santorum finishing in third with 12 to 18%, and Paul rounding out the group with 6 to 12%, though these ranges could fluctuate by a few percentage points over the next two days.

Rationale

Romney built his campaign in Florida on the strong foundation and organization he inherited from his 2008 run for the presidency. And, due to the fundraising prowess of his campaign and super-PAC, he was able to invest heavily across the ten major media markets throughout the state. This financial and organizational head start also allowed Romney to reach out to absentee and early voters, who polls indicate have voted overwhelmingly for Romney. Likewise, from early on in the campaign, Romney gained the support and endorsement of the majority of Florida's national and state wide leaders who provided Romney with vocal support through news outlets and at campaign events throughout the state. Furthermore, in the two Florida debates, Romney relentlessly attacked Gingrich and successfully highlighted his lobbying and censure by Congress as Speaker of the House to portray Gingrich as a dangerous and unreliable politician who would be a liability in a race against President Obama. By releasing his tax returns, Romney also deprived Gingrich of one of the main attack points he used successfully against Romney in South Carolina.

Ultimately, Gingrich failed to carry over the strong-and-assertive image he contrived in the previous debates in South Carolina. Following his dismal performance in the first debate he failed to help himself by complaining about audiences that were too quiet. Likewise, last week he appeared unable to take a hit and keep fighting, but merely complained that the "Washington Elite" were trying to derail his campaign. His weak debate performances were coupled with an even weaker media presence in Florida, and some of the ads he managed to get on the air in Florida hurt him much more than they helped.

One ad in particular, which targeted Romney on his immigration stance, earned a public rebuke from both Senator Marco Rubio and former Governor Jeb Bush. Although not direct endorsements, these public dismissals have hurt his image while bolstering support from Romney among Hispanic voters who comprise eleven percent of Republican voters in Florida.

Implications

If, as we expect, Romney carries Florida by a very large margin, it will fundamentally change the primary race moving forward. Romney will reassert himself as the national frontrunner and a clear favorite for the nomination, and Gingrich will have to be increasingly aggressive and take more risks going forward to have a chance at overtaking Romney. The schedule for February is not favorable to Gingrich, especially since there are no debates in the coming weeks. Yet, if anyone can once again rise from the political dead, it is Newt Gingrich. If he can pull an upset or two in February and regroup before Super Tuesday on March 6th, the race for the nomination could drag through mid-summer. And, if Gingrich fully implodes, Santorum could emerge as the consensus anti-Romney candidate. For someone to overtake Romney, though, either Santorum or Gingrich must leave the race and make room for support to coalesce around one clear conservative alternative. While the race is not yet over and many stories are left to be written, the importance of a decisive win in Florida will make it exponentially harder to beat Romney going forward.